Health, economic and social burden of tobacco in Latin America and the expected gains of fully implementing taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments control measures: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the tobacco-attributable burden on disease, medical costs, productivity losses and informal caregiving; and to estimate the health and economic gains that can be achieved if the main tobacco control measures (raising taxes on tobacco, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments) are fully implemented in eight countries that encompass 80% of the Latin American population. DESIGN: Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, costs and quality of life associated with the main tobacco-related diseases. Model inputs and data on labour productivity, informal caregivers' burden and interventions' effectiveness were obtained through literature review, surveys, civil registrations, vital statistics and hospital databases. Epidemiological and economic data from January to October 2020 were used to populate the model. FINDINGS: In these eight countries, smoking is responsible each year for 351 000 deaths, 2.25 million disease events, 12.2 million healthy years of life lost, US$22.8 billion in direct medical costs, US$16.2 billion in lost productivity and US$10.8 billion in caregiver costs. These economic losses represent 1.4% of countries' aggregated gross domestic products. The full implementation and enforcement of the four strategies: taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments would avert 271 000, 78 000, 71 000 and 39 000 deaths, respectively, in the next 10 years, and result in US$63.8, US$12.3, US$11.4 and US$5.7 billions in economic gains, respectively, on top of the benefits being achieved today by the current level of implementation of these measures. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking represents a substantial burden in Latin America. The full implementation of tobacco control measures could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce healthcare spending and caregiver and productivity losses, likely resulting in large net economic benefits.

Disparities in self-reported exposure to tobacco marketing among youth and young adults from low-socioeconomic status neighbourhoods in Mexico City.

Exposure to tobacco marketing is positively associated with smoking initiation and behaviours. There is limited literature examining disparities among reported exposure in low- and middle-income countries. This study sought to fill this gap with a survey among 1427 adolescents and 889 adult smokers in Mexico City in 2020. Data were analysed using chi-square and hierarchical regression models. Two-thirds of adolescents noticed cigarette pack displays in stores. Participants from low- and mid-socioeconomic status (SES) neighbourhoods were more exposed to tobacco marketing than their counterparts through several channels. After addressing the shared variance among participants from the same household nested in neighbourhood SES level and controlling for gender, adolescent non-smokers and adult smokers who noticed pack displays were more likely to be susceptible to smoking (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4) and to smoke more (OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.21-2.47); adult smokers who noticed tobacco marketing at more places were less likely to be certain about smoking risks (OR = 0.9, 95% CI 0.8-0.9). The results suggest that the tobacco industry targets youth and individuals from low-SES neighbourhoods through several channels. Greater exposure to tobacco marketing was associated with increased susceptibility to smoking and decreased risk perception. These findings support a comprehensive ban on tobacco marketing in Mexico.

[Benefits of the cigarette tax in Mexico, by sex and income quintileBenefícios do imposto sobre cigarros no México: análise por sexo e quintil de renda]. / Beneficios del impuesto a los cigarros en México: análisis por sexo y quintil de ingreso.

Objective: Estimate economic and health benefits, by sex and income quintile, of tax-based cigarette price increases in Mexico. Methods: An extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) model was used to estimate distributional benefits for women and men in the scenario of a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes (from 56.4 Mexican pesos [MX$] to MX$81.2 per pack), as a result of tripling the current specific excise tax (from MX$0.49/cigarette to MX$1.49/cigarette). The model was calibrated with official national information sources. Results: With a tax increase of one peso per cigarette, about 1.5 million smokers would quit (351 300 women and 1.1 million men). This would prevent approximately 630 000 smoking-attributable premature deaths. Reducing the burden of disease would save the health sector close to MX$42.8 billion and prevent more than 250 000 people (including 50 200 women smokers) from falling into poverty. It would also result in an additional MX$16.2 billion in revenue per year, of which the lowest income quintile would contribute less than 3% (1% for low-income women). Conclusions: The tobacco epidemic has clearly differentiated patterns between women and men, reflecting a gender component. While the tobacco tax in Mexico would have great benefits with respect to the current state of the epidemic, this could also contribute to the broader goal of social justice by reducing gender inequities.

Objetivo: Estimar os benefícios econômicos e de saúde, por sexo e quintil de renda, do aumento dos preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos no México. Métodos: Com um modelo de análise ampliada de custo-efetividade (ECEA, na sigla em inglês), foram estimados os benefícios distributivos em mulheres e homens com um cenário de aumento de 44% no preço dos cigarros (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] para MX$ 81,2 por maço), como resultado da triplicação do imposto específico atual (de MX$ 0,49/cigarro para MX$ 1,49/cigarro). O modelo foi calibrado com fontes oficiais de informação nacional. Resultados: Com o aumento do imposto de um MX$ por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 milhão de fumantes abandonariam o consumo (351.300 mulheres e 1,1 milhão de homens). Assim, seriam evitadas aproximadamente 630.000 mortes prematuras atribuíveis ao tabaco. A redução da carga de doenças permitiria uma economia para o setor da saúde de cerca de MX$ 42,8 bilhões e evitaria que mais de 250.000 pessoas (incluindo 50.200 mulheres fumantes) caíssem na pobreza. Além disso, seriam arrecadados MX$ 16,2 bilhões adicionais por ano, dos quais o quintil mais baixo contribuiria com menos de 3% (1% no caso de mulheres de baixa renda). Conclusões: A epidemia de tabagismo tem padrões claramente diferenciados entre mulheres e homens e reflete um componente de gênero. Embora os benefícios do imposto sobre o tabaco no México tenham importância relativa no atual estado da epidemia em cada caso, poderiam contribuir para um objetivo mais amplo de justiça social ao reduzir as desigualdades de gênero.

Measurement invariance of the GAD-5 Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale in a Mexican general population sample.

The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the measurement of invariance by sex, age, and educational level of an online version of the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale in a five-item version (GAD-5). Configural, metric, scalar, and strict invariance were evaluated using data from 79,473 respondents who answered a mental health questionnaire during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. The sex variable was classified as male or female; age was categorized as minors, youth, young adults, adults, and older adults; and educational level was divided into basic, upper secondary, higher, and graduate education. To test for configural invariance, confirmatory factor models were constructed. For metric invariance, equality restrictions were established for the factor loadings between the construct and its items; for scalar invariance, equality restrictions were established between the intercepts; strict variance implied the additional restriction of the residuals. Statistical analysis was performed in R software with the lavaan package. The results show that with respect to sex, age, and educational level, configural and metric measurement invariance was confirmed (ΔCFI < 0.002; ΔRMSEA < 0.015). However, with respect to scalar and strict invariance, the results showed significant differences regarding the fit model (ΔCFI > 0.002; ΔRMSEA > 0.015). We conclude that the GAD-5 presents configural and metric invariance for sex, age, and educational level, and scalar invariance for sex and age groups. However, the scale does not demonstrate strict invariance. We discuss the implications and suggest that this result could be related to the evaluation of sociodemographic variables.

The fallacy of science is science: the impact of conflict of interest in vaping articles

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To explore the association between reporting conflict of interest (COI) and having a positive outcome toward vaping in scientific articles. Methods. A cross-sectional study that analyzed a sample of 697 articles published between 2017 and 2020 regarding vaping. Information on the reporting of COI, type of COI (no conflict, conflict with the tobacco industry, pharmaceutical industry, or other), and country of publication were collected. To explore the association between reporting COI and having a positive result for vaping, two logistic regression models were fitted, both adjusted by country of publication. Results. From 88 articles that reported COI, 23 reported COI with the tobacco industry, 44 with the pharmaceutical industry, and 21 reported another type of conflict. We found that reporting any type of COI increased by 4.7 times the odds (OR 4.70; 95% CI [2.89, 7.65]) of having a positive result for vaping. Additionally, compared to other countries, manuscripts published in England had 2 times higher odds (OR 2.40; 95% CI [1.16, 4.98]) of reporting a positive result for vaping. Reporting COI with the tobacco and pharmaceutical industries increased the odds of favorable results by 29 times (OR 29.95; 95% CI [9.84, 90.98]) and 2 times (OR 2.87; 95% CI [1.45, 5.69]), respectively. Conclusions. In scientific articles, reporting COI and having positive results for vaping are highly associated. COI should be considered and caution should be exercised when using data for policy-making.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Explorar la relación entre notificar la existencia de conflictos de intereses y tener un resultado positivo con respecto al vapeo en los artículos científicos. Métodos. Se realizó un estudio transversal que analizó una muestra de 697 artículos sobre vapeo publicados entre 2017 y 2020. Se recopiló información sobre la notificación de la existencia de conflictos de intereses, los tipos de conflicto (sin conflicto o conflicto con la industria tabacalera, con la industria farmacéutica o con otras industrias) y el país de publicación. Para explorar la relación entre notificar la existencia de conflictos de intereses y tener un resultado positivo respecto del vapeo, se adaptaron dos modelos de regresión logística, y ambos se ajustaron por país de publicación. Resultados. De los 88 artículos en los que se notificó la existencia de conflictos de intereses, 23 informaron sobre conflictos de intereses con la industria tabacalera, 44 sobre conflictos con la industria farmacéutica y 21 sobre otros tipos de conflicto. Se determinó que la notificación de cualquier tipo de conflicto de intereses incrementó en 4,7 veces las probabilidades (OR 4,70; IC del 95 % [2,89; 7,65]) de obtener un resultado positivo con respecto al vapeo. Además, en comparación con otros países, los artículos publicados en Inglaterra mostraron probabilidades 2 veces más altas (OR 2,40; IC del 95 % [1,16; 4,98]) de comunicar un resultado positivo respecto del vapeo. Informar sobre la existencia de conflictos de intereses con las industrias tabacalera y farmacéutica multiplicó las probabilidades de resultados favorables por 29 (OR 29,95; IC del 95 % [9,84; 90,98]) y por 2 (OR 2,87; IC del 95% [1,45; 5,69]), respectivamente. Conclusiones. En los artículos científicos, existe una clara relación entre notificar la existencia de conflictos de intereses y tener un resultado positivo con respecto al vapeo. Se debe considerar el conflicto de intereses y actuar con precaución al emplear estos datos para la formulación de políticas.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Examinar a associação entre declarar conflitos de interesses e obter resultados favoráveis sobre os cigarros eletrônicos em artigos científicos. Métodos. Estudo transversal que analisou uma amostra de 697 artigos sobre cigarros eletrônicos publicados entre 2017 e 2020. Foram coletadas informações sobre a declaração de conflito de interesses, tipo de conflito (ausência de conflito, conflito com a indústria tabagista ou farmacêutica, ou outras formas de conflito) e o país de publicação do estudo. Dois modelos de regressão logística foram criados, com ajuste por país de publicação, para examinar a associação entre declarar conflitos de interesses e obter resultados favoráveis para os cigarros eletrônicos. Resultados. De 88 artigos que continham a declaração de conflitos de interesses, 23 informaram conflitos com a indústria tabagista, 44 com a indústria farmacêutica e 21 outras formas de conflito. Declarar qualquer tipo de conflito de interesses foi associado a uma probabilidade 4,7 vezes maior (OR 4,70; IC 95% [2,89, 7,65]) de obter resultados favoráveis aos cigarros eletrônicos. Quanto aos países de publicação, verificou-se uma probabilidade duas vezes maior de os artigos publicados na Inglaterra (OR 2,40; IC 95% [1,16, 4,98]) informarem resultados favoráveis para os cigarros eletrônicos. Quando se declarou o conflito de interesses com as indústrias tabagista e farmacêutica, a chance de resultados favoráveis nos estudos foi 29 vezes maior (OR 29,95; IC 95% [9,84, 90,98]) e 2 vezes maior (OR 2,87; IC 95% [1,45, 5,69]), respectivamente. Conclusões. Observa-se uma forte associação entre declarar o conflito de interesses e obter resultados favoráveis para os cigarros eletrônicos em artigos científicos. O conflito de interesses deve ser levado em consideração, recomendando-se cautela ao utilizar os dados de estudos na formulação de políticas.

Moving forward in the Americas: tobacco control fosters sustainable development

[EXTRACT]. This special issue applies this lens, bringing an equity focus to tobacco control measures, with particular attention paid to vulnerable groups (e.g., youth and low-income quintiles) and including a gender perspective. Further, one analysis empha- sizes the extent of environmental damage posed across the tobacco production chain, including the economic cost of tobacco products waste, and proposes policies to address this.

Beneficios del impuesto a los cigarros en México: análisis por sexo y quintil de ingreso

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Estimar los beneficios económicos y en salud, por sexo y por quintil de ingreso, del incremento de los precios de los cigarros mediante impuestos en México. Métodos. Con un modelo de costo-efectividad extendido (ECEA, por su sigla en inglés) se estimaron los beneficios distributivos en mujeres y hombres con un escenario de incremento del precio de los cigarros de 44% (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] a MX$81,2 por cajetilla), como resultado de triplicar el impuesto especí- fico actual (de MX$0,49/cigarro a MX$1,49/cigarro). El modelo se calibró con fuentes oficiales de información nacional Resultados. Con el incremento del impuesto de un peso por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 millones de fumadores abandonarían el consumo (351 300 mujeres y 1,1 millón de hombres). Así, se evitarían aproximadamente 630 000 muertes prematuras atribuibles al tabaco. La reducción de la carga de enfermedad permitiría ahorros para el sector salud cercanos a MX$42 800 millones y evitaría que más de 250 000 personas (entre ellas, 50 200 mujeres fumadoras) cayeran en situación de pobreza. Además, se recaudarían MX$16 200 millones adicionales por año, de los cuales el quintil más bajo aportaría menos de 3% (1% en el caso de las mujeres de menores ingresos). Conclusiones. La epidemia de tabaquismo tiene patrones claramente diferenciados entre mujeres y hom- bres y reflejan un componente de género. Si bien los beneficios del impuesto al tabaco en México tendrían magnitudes relativas al estado actual de la epidemia en cada caso, estos podrían contribuir a un objetivo más amplio de justicia social mediante la reducción de las inequidades de género.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. Estimate economic and health benefits, by sex and income quintile, of tax-based cigarette price increases in Mexico. Methods. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) model was used to estimate distributional benefits for women and men in the scenario of a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes (from 56.4 Mexican pesos [MX$] to MX$81.2 per pack), as a result of tripling the current specific excise tax (from MX$0.49/cigarette to MX$1.49/cigarette). The model was calibrated with official national information sources. Results. With a tax increase of one peso per cigarette, about 1.5 million smokers would quit (351 300 women and 1.1 million men). This would prevent approximately 630 000 smoking-attributable premature deaths. Reducing the burden of disease would save the health sector close to MX$42.8 billion and prevent more than 250 000 people (including 50 200 women smokers) from falling into poverty. It would also result in an additional MX$16.2 billion in revenue per year, of which the lowest income quintile would contribute less than 3% (1% for low-income women). Conclusions. The tobacco epidemic has clearly differentiated patterns between women and men, reflecting a gender component. While the tobacco tax in Mexico would have great benefits with respect to the current state of the epidemic, this could also contribute to the broader goal of social justice by reducing gender inequities.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Estimar os benefícios econômicos e de saúde, por sexo e quintil de renda, do aumento dos preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos no México. Métodos. Com um modelo de análise ampliada de custo-efetividade (ECEA, na sigla em inglês), foram esti- mados os benefícios distributivos em mulheres e homens com um cenário de aumento de 44% no preço dos cigarros (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] para MX$ 81,2 por maço), como resultado da triplicação do imposto específico atual (de MX$ 0,49/cigarro para MX$ 1,49/cigarro). O modelo foi calibrado com fontes oficiais de informação nacional. Resultados. Com o aumento do imposto de um MX$ por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 milhão de fumantes abando- nariam o consumo (351.300 mulheres e 1,1 milhão de homens). Assim, seriam evitadas aproximadamente 630.000 mortes prematuras atribuíveis ao tabaco. A redução da carga de doenças permitiria uma economia para o setor da saúde de cerca de MX$ 42,8 bilhões e evitaria que mais de 250.000 pessoas (incluindo 50.200 mulheres fumantes) caíssem na pobreza. Além disso, seriam arrecadados MX$ 16,2 bilhões adicionais por ano, dos quais o quintil mais baixo contribuiria com menos de 3% (1% no caso de mulheres de baixa renda). Conclusões. A epidemia de tabagismo tem padrões claramente diferenciados entre mulheres e homens e reflete um componente de gênero. Embora os benefícios do imposto sobre o tabaco no México tenham impor- tância relativa no atual estado da epidemia em cada caso, poderiam contribuir para um objetivo mais amplo de justiça social ao reduzir as desigualdades de gênero.

Progress and challenges in tobacco control policies in Mexico, 2003-2017: an approach using the Tobacco Control Scale.

The study aims to assess the implementation of tobacco control policies in Mexico from 2003 through 2017 using the Tobacco Control Scale (TCS). The TCS is a research tool widely used in the European region. It facilitates assessment of tobacco control policy implementation based on six cost-effective interventions: tobacco taxes, smoke-free policies, advertising bans, public spending on the information campaign, health warnings, and smoking cessation treatment, reflecting results in a total score between 0 and 100. From 2003 through 2017, Mexico's total score improved from 24/100 to 55/100, with substantial progress in raising tobacco taxes, 11 subnational smoke-free laws, and with placement on cigarette packs of large health warnings with pictograms. Progress in tobacco control policies implemented in this period corresponds with a decrease in smoking prevalence across Mexico. This tool is useful for monitoring tobacco policy implementation in low- and middle-income countries and be used for advocacy purposes to enforce and improve tobacco control legislation.

Tobacco Taxes as the Unsung Hero: Impact of a Tax Increase on Advancing Sustainable Development in Colombia.

Objective: Tobacco taxes are a well-established cost-effective policy to prevent Noncommunicable Diseases. This paper evaluates the expected effects of a tobacco tax increase on the Sustainable Development Goals in Colombia. Methods: We use microsimulation to build an artificial society that mimics the observed characteristics of Colombia's population, and from there we simulate the behavioral response to a tax increase of COP$4,750 (an increase that has been discussed by policy makers and legislators) and the subsequent effects in all SDGs. Results: The tobacco tax hike reduces the number of smokers (from 4.51 to 3.45 MM smokers) and smoking intensity, resulting in a drop in the number of cigarettes smoked in Colombia (from 332.3 to 215.5 MM of 20-stick packs). Such reduction is expected to decrease premature mortality, healthcare costs, poverty and people facing catastrophic expenditure on healthcare, to increase health, income and gender equity, and to strengthen domestic resource mobilization even in the presence of illicit cigarettes. Conclusion: Tobacco taxes are an effective intervention for public health and a powerful instrument to advance on the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. Relevance: A comprehensive analysis of the impact of tobacco taxes on all areas of Sustainable Development is missing in the empirical literature. Such perspective is needed to break the barriers for further tobacco tax increases by gathering wider societal support, especially from stakeholders and key decision makers from development areas other than health. SDG Nr: SDG3 (health), SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 4 (education), SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG6 (water), SDG10 (inequality), SDG12 (responsible production and consumption), SDG17 (partnerships).

The distributional effects of tobacco tax increases across regions in Mexico: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown the beneficial effects of tobacco fiscal policy, but distributional effects have been less examined, especially at the subnational level. The objective of this study is to analyse the distributional effects of a one-peso tobacco tax increase (roughly equivalent to tripling the current excise tax) on health, poverty, and financial outcomes at the subnational level in Mexico. METHODS: We employ an extended cost-effectiveness analysis that estimates life-years gained, smoking attributable deaths averted, treatment costs averted, number of persons avoiding poverty and catastrophic health expenditures, and additional tax revenues by income group across five regions. RESULTS: With the one-peso tax increase (or 44% price increase), about 1.5 million smokers would quit smoking across the five regions, resulting in nearly 630 thousand premature deaths averted and 12.6 million life years gained. The bottom income quintile would gain three times more life years gains than the top quintile (ratio 3:1), and the largest gain for the most deprived would occur in the South (ratio 19:1), the region with the highest poverty incidence. Costs averted and additional tax revenues would reach 44.6 and 16.2 billion pesos, respectively. Moreover, 251 thousand individuals would avoid falling into poverty, including 53.2 in the lowest income quintile, and 563.9 thousand would avoid catastrophic health expenditures. Overall, the bottom income group would obtain 26% of the life years gained and 24% of the cost averted, while only paying 3% of the additional tax revenue. CONCLUSIONS: The most significant gains from a substantial cigarette price increase would be for the poorest 20%, especially in the South, the most impoverished region of Mexico. Therefore, tobacco taxes are an opportunity for governments to advance in equity and towards the achievement of sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases.

The fallacy of science is science: the impact of conflict of interest in vaping articles / La falacia de la ciencia es la ciencia: el efecto del conflicto de intereses en los artículos sobre el vapeo / A falácia da ciência é ciência: o impacto do conflito de interesses em artigos sobre cigarros eletrônicos

ABSTRACT Objective. To explore the association between reporting conflict of interest (COI) and having a positive outcome toward vaping in scientific articles. Methods. A cross-sectional study that analyzed a sample of 697 articles published between 2017 and 2020 regarding vaping. Information on the reporting of COI, type of COI (no conflict, conflict with the tobacco industry, pharmaceutical industry, or other), and country of publication were collected. To explore the association between reporting COI and having a positive result for vaping, two logistic regression models were fitted, both adjusted by country of publication. Results. From 88 articles that reported COI, 23 reported COI with the tobacco industry, 44 with the pharmaceutical industry, and 21 reported another type of conflict. We found that reporting any type of COI increased by 4.7 times the odds (OR 4.70; 95% CI [2.89, 7.65]) of having a positive result for vaping. Additionally, compared to other countries, manuscripts published in England had 2 times higher odds (OR 2.40; 95% CI [1.16, 4.98]) of reporting a positive result for vaping. Reporting COI with the tobacco and pharmaceutical industries increased the odds of favorable results by 29 times (OR 29.95; 95% CI [9.84, 90.98]) and 2 times (OR 2.87; 95% CI [1.45, 5.69]), respectively. Conclusions. In scientific articles, reporting COI and having positive results for vaping are highly associated. COI should be considered and caution should be exercised when using data for policy-making.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Explorar la relación entre notificar la existencia de conflictos de intereses y tener un resultado positivo con respecto al vapeo en los artículos científicos. Métodos. Se realizó un estudio transversal que analizó una muestra de 697 artículos sobre vapeo publicados entre 2017 y 2020. Se recopiló información sobre la notificación de la existencia de conflictos de intereses, los tipos de conflicto (sin conflicto o conflicto con la industria tabacalera, con la industria farmacéutica o con otras industrias) y el país de publicación. Para explorar la relación entre notificar la existencia de conflictos de intereses y tener un resultado positivo respecto del vapeo, se adaptaron dos modelos de regresión logística, y ambos se ajustaron por país de publicación. Resultados. De los 88 artículos en los que se notificó la existencia de conflictos de intereses, 23 informaron sobre conflictos de intereses con la industria tabacalera, 44 sobre conflictos con la industria farmacéutica y 21 sobre otros tipos de conflicto. Se determinó que la notificación de cualquier tipo de conflicto de intereses incrementó en 4,7 veces las probabilidades (OR 4,70; IC del 95 % [2,89; 7,65]) de obtener un resultado positivo con respecto al vapeo. Además, en comparación con otros países, los artículos publicados en Inglaterra mostraron probabilidades 2 veces más altas (OR 2,40; IC del 95 % [1,16; 4,98]) de comunicar un resultado positivo respecto del vapeo. Informar sobre la existencia de conflictos de intereses con las industrias tabacalera y farmacéutica multiplicó las probabilidades de resultados favorables por 29 (OR 29,95; IC del 95 % [9,84; 90,98]) y por 2 (OR 2,87; IC del 95% [1,45; 5,69]), respectivamente. Conclusiones. En los artículos científicos, existe una clara relación entre notificar la existencia de conflictos de intereses y tener un resultado positivo con respecto al vapeo. Se debe considerar el conflicto de intereses y actuar con precaución al emplear estos datos para la formulación de políticas.

RESUMO Objetivo. Examinar a associação entre declarar conflitos de interesses e obter resultados favoráveis sobre os cigarros eletrônicos em artigos científicos. Métodos. Estudo transversal que analisou uma amostra de 697 artigos sobre cigarros eletrônicos publicados entre 2017 e 2020. Foram coletadas informações sobre a declaração de conflito de interesses, tipo de conflito (ausência de conflito, conflito com a indústria tabagista ou farmacêutica, ou outras formas de conflito) e o país de publicação do estudo. Dois modelos de regressão logística foram criados, com ajuste por país de publicação, para examinar a associação entre declarar conflitos de interesses e obter resultados favoráveis para os cigarros eletrônicos. Resultados. De 88 artigos que continham a declaração de conflitos de interesses, 23 informaram conflitos com a indústria tabagista, 44 com a indústria farmacêutica e 21 outras formas de conflito. Declarar qualquer tipo de conflito de interesses foi associado a uma probabilidade 4,7 vezes maior (OR 4,70; IC 95% [2,89, 7,65]) de obter resultados favoráveis aos cigarros eletrônicos. Quanto aos países de publicação, verificou-se uma probabilidade duas vezes maior de os artigos publicados na Inglaterra (OR 2,40; IC 95% [1,16, 4,98]) informarem resultados favoráveis para os cigarros eletrônicos. Quando se declarou o conflito de interesses com as indústrias tabagista e farmacêutica, a chance de resultados favoráveis nos estudos foi 29 vezes maior (OR 29,95; IC 95% [9,84, 90,98]) e 2 vezes maior (OR 2,87; IC 95% [1,45, 5,69]), respectivamente. Conclusões. Observa-se uma forte associação entre declarar o conflito de interesses e obter resultados favoráveis para os cigarros eletrônicos em artigos científicos. O conflito de interesses deve ser levado em consideração, recomendando-se cautela ao utilizar os dados de estudos na formulação de políticas.

Beneficios del impuesto a los cigarros en México: análisis por sexo y quintil de ingreso / Benefits of the cigarette tax in Mexico, by sex and income quintile / Benefícios do imposto sobre cigarros no México: análise por sexo e quintil de renda

RESUMEN Objetivo. Estimar los beneficios económicos y en salud, por sexo y por quintil de ingreso, del incremento de los precios de los cigarros mediante impuestos en México. Métodos. Con un modelo de costo-efectividad extendido (ECEA, por su sigla en inglés) se estimaron los beneficios distributivos en mujeres y hombres con un escenario de incremento del precio de los cigarros de 44% (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] a MX$81,2 por cajetilla), como resultado de triplicar el impuesto específico actual (de MX$0,49/cigarro a MX$1,49/cigarro). El modelo se calibró con fuentes oficiales de información nacional Resultados. Con el incremento del impuesto de un peso por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 millones de fumadores abandonarían el consumo (351 300 mujeres y 1,1 millón de hombres). Así, se evitarían aproximadamente 630 000 muertes prematuras atribuibles al tabaco. La reducción de la carga de enfermedad permitiría ahorros para el sector salud cercanos a MX$42 800 millones y evitaría que más de 250 000 personas (entre ellas, 50 200 mujeres fumadoras) cayeran en situación de pobreza. Además, se recaudarían MX$16 200 millones adicionales por año, de los cuales el quintil más bajo aportaría menos de 3% (1% en el caso de las mujeres de menores ingresos). Conclusiones. La epidemia de tabaquismo tiene patrones claramente diferenciados entre mujeres y hombres y reflejan un componente de género. Si bien los beneficios del impuesto al tabaco en México tendrían magnitudes relativas al estado actual de la epidemia en cada caso, estos podrían contribuir a un objetivo más amplio de justicia social mediante la reducción de las inequidades de género.

ABSTRACT Objective. Estimate economic and health benefits, by sex and income quintile, of tax-based cigarette price increases in Mexico. Methods. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) model was used to estimate distributional benefits for women and men in the scenario of a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes (from 56.4 Mexican pesos [MX$] to MX$81.2 per pack), as a result of tripling the current specific excise tax (from MX$0.49/cigarette to MX$1.49/cigarette). The model was calibrated with official national information sources. Results. With a tax increase of one peso per cigarette, about 1.5 million smokers would quit (351 300 women and 1.1 million men). This would prevent approximately 630 000 smoking-attributable premature deaths. Reducing the burden of disease would save the health sector close to MX$42.8 billion and prevent more than 250 000 people (including 50 200 women smokers) from falling into poverty. It would also result in an additional MX$16.2 billion in revenue per year, of which the lowest income quintile would contribute less than 3% (1% for low-income women). Conclusions. The tobacco epidemic has clearly differentiated patterns between women and men, reflecting a gender component. While the tobacco tax in Mexico would have great benefits with respect to the current state of the epidemic, this could also contribute to the broader goal of social justice by reducing gender inequities.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar os benefícios econômicos e de saúde, por sexo e quintil de renda, do aumento dos preços dos cigarros por meio de impostos no México. Métodos. Com um modelo de análise ampliada de custo-efetividade (ECEA, na sigla em inglês), foram estimados os benefícios distributivos em mulheres e homens com um cenário de aumento de 44% no preço dos cigarros (de 56,4 pesos mexicanos [MX$] para MX$ 81,2 por maço), como resultado da triplicação do imposto específico atual (de MX$ 0,49/cigarro para MX$ 1,49/cigarro). O modelo foi calibrado com fontes oficiais de informação nacional. Resultados. Com o aumento do imposto de um MX$ por cigarro, cerca de 1,5 milhão de fumantes abandonariam o consumo (351.300 mulheres e 1,1 milhão de homens). Assim, seriam evitadas aproximadamente 630.000 mortes prematuras atribuíveis ao tabaco. A redução da carga de doenças permitiria uma economia para o setor da saúde de cerca de MX$ 42,8 bilhões e evitaria que mais de 250.000 pessoas (incluindo 50.200 mulheres fumantes) caíssem na pobreza. Além disso, seriam arrecadados MX$ 16,2 bilhões adicionais por ano, dos quais o quintil mais baixo contribuiria com menos de 3% (1% no caso de mulheres de baixa renda). Conclusões. A epidemia de tabagismo tem padrões claramente diferenciados entre mulheres e homens e reflete um componente de gênero. Embora os benefícios do imposto sobre o tabaco no México tenham importância relativa no atual estado da epidemia em cada caso, poderiam contribuir para um objetivo mais amplo de justiça social ao reduzir as desigualdades de gênero.

Factores asociados con el consumo excesivo de alcohol: Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre Covid-19 / Factors associated with binge drinking: National Health and Nutrition Survey 2020, Covid-19

Resumen: Objetivo: Conocer la magnitud del consumo excesivo de alcohol (CEA) y su asociación con los factores individuales, familiares y sociales entre agosto y noviembre de 2020 en México. Material y métodos: Con base en los datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre Covid-19, se analizaron 8 595 adultos mayores de 20 años. Se estimaron modelos de regresión logística estratificados por sexo y se obtuvieron razones de momios (RM) con intervalos de confianza al 95% (IC95%). Resultados: El CEA fue de 40.43%; hombres 56.49% y mujeres 25.70%. Los principales factores asociados fueron ser hombre (RM=3.66; IC95%: 3.22,4.12), edad de 20 a 29 años (RM=3.65; IC95%: 2.89,4.63), salir a trabajar durante la pandemia (RM=1.56; IC95%: 1.33,1.81) y tener dos o más escolares en el hogar (RM=1.20; IC95%: 1.03,1.39). Conclusiones: En México, el patrón de CEA es prevalente; por su naturaleza de riesgo y su amplia distribución poblacional, es prioritario implementar intervenciones preventivas individuales y de salud pública.

Abstract: Objective: Estimate the magnitude of binge drinking and its association with individual, family, and social factors between August to November 2020 in Mexico. Materials and methods: Based on the data from National Health and Nutrition Survey 2020 Covid-19, 8 595 adults over 20 years old were analyzed. Stratified logistic regression models by sex were estimated obtaining odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: The binge drinking reported was 40.43%; in men 56.49% and in women 25.70%. The main associated factors were being a man (OR=3.66; 95%CI: 3.22,4.17), age 20 to 29 years (OR=3.56; 95%CI: 2.89,4.63), going to work during the pandemic (OR=1.56; 95%CI: 1.33,1.81), and having two or more people of school children (OR=1.20; 95%CI: 1.03,1.39). Conclusions: The binge drinking pattern in Mexico is prevalent; due to the risky nature and the wide population distribution, it is a priority to implement individual preventive and public health interventions.

The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.

BACKGROUND: Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico. METHODS: A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending. CONCLUSIONS: Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies.

OBJECTIVE: To compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures. METHODS: We used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017. A total of 2396 face-to-face interviews to adult smokers were conducted and 8204 discarded packs were collected. To determine whether cigarette packs were intended for the Mexican market, we analysed pack features required by Mexican regulations and self-reported brands of the last purchase. Standard statistical tests to compare proportions were employed. Correlates of illicit cigarette use were also analysed. RESULTS: The share of cigarettes not intended for the Mexican market was 8.8% based on the analysis of discarded packs and 7.6% based on the survey of smokers, that is, the difference was small and only borderline significant overall (p=0.055). Also, both results were lower than those presented by the tobacco industry (16.6%). However, differences across methods were statistically significant for various cities. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the optimal practice for the study of illicit trade is to cross validate estimates using both the smoker survey and the littered pack survey. If resources are limited, however, our findings indicate that either method could be used because both yield similar overall results, as longs as the potential biases are considered. Also, consistent with findings from other studies, our results suggest that the tobacco industry exaggerates the scope of illicit cigarette trade.

Trends in cigarette brand preference among Mexican smokers: the rise of Pall Mall.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse trends in cigarette brand preference among Mexican smokers during the implementation period of key WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control recommendations. METHODS: Data came from two nationally representative, comparable surveys, namely the Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2009 and 2015 and the National Survey on Addictions 2011 and 2016. Logistic models were used to estimate the adjusted prevalence of each brand purchased, as well as individual correlates of purchasing the single brand with a large growth over the study period. Multiple linear regressions were also employed to analyse cigarette prices across brands. RESULTS: Six brand families accounted for about 90% of the cigarette market, with Marlboro clearly dominating all brands at 54%-61%. Only the share of Pall Mall brand, however, registered a rapid increase over the period-from 1% in 2009 to 14% in 2016. Women and younger smokers (15-24 years) were more likely to prefer Pall Mall over other brands. While the typical price segmentation between international (premium) brands and national (discount) brands was observed, the price of Pall Mall is within the range of the latter. Importantly, most varieties of this brand include flavour capsule varieties (FCVs). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the strong campaign of brand migration, the pricing strategy and the aggressive introduction of FCVs expanded Pall Mall in the Mexican cigarette market. Therefore, better control policies of cigarette contents and taxes that reduce price differentials across brands should be encouraged to promote public health.

The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, smoking tobacco causes 7 million deaths annually, and this toll is expected to increase, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. In Latin America, smoking is a leading risk factor for death and disability, contributes to poverty, and imposes an economic burden on health systems. Despite being one of the most effective measures to reduce smoking, tobacco taxation is underused and cigarettes are more affordable in Latin America than in other regions. Our aim was to estimate the tobacco-attributable burden on mortality, disease incidence, quality of life lost, and medical costs in 12 Latin American countries, and the expected health and economic effects of increasing tobacco taxes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, medical costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with the most common tobacco-related diseases in 12 countries in Latin America. Data inputs were obtained through a literature review, vital statistics, and hospital databases from each country: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The main outcomes of the model are life-years, quality-adjusted life-years, disease events, hospitalisations, disease incidence, disease cost, and healthy years of life lost. We estimated direct medical costs for each tobacco-related disease included in the model using a common costing methodology for each country. The disease burden was estimated as the difference in disease events, deaths, and associated costs between the results predicted by the model for current smoking prevalence and a hypothetical cohort of people in each country who had never smoked. The model estimates the health and financial effects of a price increase of cigarettes through taxes, in terms of disease and health-care costs averted, and increased tax revenues. FINDINGS: In the 12 Latin American countries analysed, we estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 345 000 (12%) of the total 2 860 921 adult deaths, 2·21 million disease events, 8·77 million healthy years of life lost, and $26·9 billion in direct medical costs annually. Health-care costs attributable to smoking were estimated to represent 6·9% of the health budgets of these countries, equivalent to 0·6% of their gross domestic product. Tax revenues from cigarette sales cover 36·0% of the estimated health expenditures caused by smoking. We estimated that a 50% increase in cigarette price through taxation would avert more than 300 000 deaths, 1·3 million disease events, gain 9 million healthy life-years, and save $26·7 billion in health-care costs in the next 10 years, with a total economic benefit of $43·7 billion. INTERPRETATION: Smoking represents a substantial health and economic burden in these 12 countries of Latin America. Tobacco tax increases could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce health-care spending, and increase tax revenues, resulting in large net economic benefits. FUNDING: International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Smoke-Free Air Interventions in Seven Latin American Countries: Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Implementation.

INTRODUCTION: Disease burden due to tobacco smoking in Latin America remains very high. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of implementing smoke-free air interventions on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a mathematical model. AIMS AND METHODS: We built a probabilistic Monte Carlo microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths and events) and costs. To populate the model, we completed an overview and systematic review of the literature. Also, we calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with those coming from local national statistics. RESULTS: With current policies, for the next 10 years, a total of 137 121 deaths and 917 210 events could be averted, adding 3.84 million years of healthy life and saving USD 9.2 billion in these seven countries. If countries fully implemented smoke-free air strategies, it would be possible to avert nearly 180 000 premature deaths and 1.2 million events, adding 5 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.1 billion in direct healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the smoke-free air strategy would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds quality evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing smoke-free air policies in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin America and the Caribbean population.

[Social factors associated with tobacco and alcohol consumption in Mexican adolescents from populations under 100 000 inhabitants.] / Factores sociales asociados con el consumo de tabaco y alcohol en adolescentes mexicanos de poblaciones menores a 100 000 habitantes.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the social factors associated with tobacco and alcohol consumption in Mexican adolescents from populations under 100 000 inhabitants. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on the National Health and Nutrition Survey (Ensanut100k). It included adolescents between 10-19 years. Adjusted logistic regression models were estimated, obtaining Odds Ratio (OR) and confidence intervals 95% (CI95%). RESULTS: Prevalence of tobacco consumption in the last month was 5.5% (10-14 years= 1.0%, 15-19 years= 11.2%); alcohol consumption 9.3%, and excessive alcohol consumption, 2.8%. Associated factors: smoking, sex (male, OR=6.00, CI95%: 2.89-12.46), age (OR=1.73, CI95%: 1.46-2.04), remunerated work (OR=2.87, CI95%: 1.12-7.34), affiliation to health services (OR=0.26, CI95%: 0.08-0.82); alcohol consumption, (male, OR=5.11, CI95%: 2.38-11.00), age (OR=1.70, CI95%: 1.51-1.92), remunerated work (OR=2.51, CI95%: 1.01-6.24). CONCLUSIONS: To reduce the consumption of alcohol and tobacco in adolescents, comprehensive prevention strategies must be implemented that consider the individual and social context.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar los factores sociales asociados con el consumo de tabaco y alcohol en adolescentes mexicanos de poblaciones menores a 100 000 habitantes. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio transversal a partir de resultados de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut 100k) que se enfocó en adolescentes de entre 10 y 19 años. Se estimaron modelos de regresión logística ajustados y se obtuvieron razones de momios (RM) e intervalos de confianza al 95% (IC95%). RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de consumo de tabaco en el último mes fue de 5.5% (10-14 años=1.0%, 15-19 años= 11.2%); de consumo de alcohol, 9.3%, y de consumo excesivo de alcohol, 2.8%. Factores asociados: consumo de tabaco, sexo (hombre, RM= 6.00; IC95%: 2.89-12.46), edad (RM=1.73; IC95%: 1.46-2.04), trabajo remunerado (RM= 2.87; IC95%: 1.12-7.34) y afiliación a servicios de salud (RM= 0.26; IC95%: 0.08-0.82); consumo de alcohol, (hombre, RM= 5.11; IC95%: 2.38-11.0), edad (RM= 1.70; IC95%: 1.51-1.92) y trabajo remunerado (RM= 2.51; IC95%: 1.01-6.24). CONCLUSIONES: Para reducir el consumo de alcohol y tabaco en adolescentes deben implementarse estrategias de prevención integrales que tomen en cuenta el contexto individual y social.

Factores sociales asociados con el consumo de tabaco y alcohol en adolescentes mexicanos de poblaciones menores a 100 000 habitantes / Social factors associated with tobacco and alcohol consumption in Mexican adolescents from populations under 100 000 inhabitants

Resumen: Objetivo: Evaluar los factores sociales asociados con el consumo de tabaco y alcohol en adolescentes mexicanos de poblaciones menores a 100 000 habitantes. Material y métodos: Estudio transversal a partir de resultados de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut 100k) que se enfocó en adolescentes de entre 10 y 19 años. Se estimaron modelos de regresión logística ajustados y se obtuvieron razones de momios (RM) e intervalos de confianza al 95% (IC95%). Resultados: La prevalencia de consumo de tabaco en el último mes fue de 5.5% (10-14 años=1.0%, 15-19 años= 11.2%); de consumo de alcohol, 9.3%, y de consumo excesivo de alcohol, 2.8%. Factores asociados: consumo de tabaco, sexo (hombre, RM= 6.00; IC95%: 2.89-12.46), edad (RM=1.73; IC95%: 1.46-2.04), trabajo remunerado (RM= 2.87; IC95%: 1.12-7.34) y afiliación a servicios de salud (RM= 0.26; IC95%: 0.08-0.82); consumo de alcohol, (hombre, RM= 5.11; IC95%: 2.38-11.0), edad (RM= 1.70; IC95%: 1.51-1.92) y trabajo remunerado (RM= 2.51; IC95%: 1.01-6.24). Conclusiones: Para reducir el consumo de alcohol y tabaco en adolescentes deben implementarse estrategias de prevención integrales que tomen en cuenta el contexto individual y social.

Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the social factors associated with tobacco and alcohol consumption in Mexican adolescents from populations under 100 000 inhabitants. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional study based on the National Health and Nutrition Survey (Ensanut100k). It included adolescents between 10-19 years. Adjusted logistic regression models were estimated, obtaining Odds Ratio (OR) and confidence intervals 95% (CI95%). Results: Prevalence of tobacco consumption in the last month was 5.5% (10-14 years= 1.0%, 15-19 years= 11.2%); alcohol consumption 9.3%, and excessive alcohol consumption, 2.8%. Associated factors: smoking, sex (male, OR=6.00, CI95%: 2.89-12.46), age (OR=1.73, CI95%: 1.46-2.04), remunerated work (OR=2.87, CI95%: 1.12-7.34), affiliation to health services (OR=0.26, CI95%: 0.08-0.82); alcohol consumption, (male, OR=5.11, CI95%: 2.38-11.00), age (OR=1.70, CI95%: 1.51-1.92), remunerated work (OR=2.51, CI95%: 1.01-6.24). Conclusions: To reduce the consumption of alcohol and tobacco in adolescents, comprehensive prevention strategies must be implemented that consider the individual and social context.